Market Report, "Brazil Country Risk Report Q3 2016", published

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Thu May 12 2016

Widespread public unrest, sweeping corruption scandals, and deepening polarisation will keep political risk elevated over the coming quarters, weighing on investor sentiment and contributing to extreme uncertainty in terms of policy direction. Over a multiyear timeframe, the Brazilian electorate will demand progress on promised reforms, including higher-quality public services and greater government transparency.

Over the long-term, Brazil will only experience modest levels of growth as structural headwinds limit any quick economic solutions to the challenges faced from falling global commodity prices. Modest growth will only return to the economy following two consecutive years in recession in both 2015 and 2016.

Major Forecast Changes

We have downgraded our 2016 real GDP growth forecast to -4.0%, from -3.4% previously. Growth will be constrained by deep declines in investment.

Full Report Details at

We forecast that the real will average BRL4.000/USD in 2016, rather than our previous forecast of BRL4.600/USD. This is due a strong start to the year for the currency, as well as a significant upgrade in our current account deficit forecast. We forecast the current account shortfall will amount to 2.1% of GDP in 2016, the result of a sharp reduction in import demand.

While we still expect the BCB to hike rates to manage inflation, the pace of these hikes will likely be more subdued than we originally believed. We forecast an end-2016 rate of 15.00%, versus our previous projection of 15.75%.

Key Risks

The political situation is subject to considerable uncertainty, not least because the way it depends heavily on how courts rule on various proceedings, involving allegations of corruption and abuse of power at the highest levels of government.

Given Brazil's exposure to industrial metals and agricultural goods, an abrupt change to the prices of these commodities would have a major impact - either positive or negative - on the country's economic outlook.

Assess your risk exposure in Brazil with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Brazil with confidence.

Your subscription service includes:
Delivery of the report in print and PDF
Online access for 12 months
The functionality to translate your online report into your choice of 10 languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish
The ability to export data and graphs from the online report directly into your workflow
The support of a dedicated Account Manager to answer any questions you might have about your subscription

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is a leading distributor of market research and business information. Representing the world's top research publishers and analysts, we provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. Our unbiased, expert staff is always available to help you find the right research to fit your requirements and your budget.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at or call us at 1.800.844.8156 (1.413.485.7001 Int'l)

You may also be interested in these related reports:

- Namibia Country Risk Report Q3 2016
- Indonesia Country Risk Report Q3 2016
- Hungary Country Risk Report Q3 2016
- United States Country Risk Report Q3 2016
- Estonia Country Risk Report Q3 2016

Company: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Contact Name: Bill Thompson
Contact Email:
Contact Phone: 1-413-485-7001

Visit website »