Hong Kong Retail Report Q3 2016 - New Market Research Report

Hong Kong has a highly mature retail sector, benefitting from a high-spending local population and a strong tourism industry. The luxury end of the spectrum is particularly important and global luxury retailers are well represented in the market. While we see retail spending holding up, buoyed by high local incomes, the impact of the Chinese economic slowdown on tourism spending and, in the longer term, Hong Kong's ageing population, could create challenges for retailers.

Key Views And Developments

Hong Kong's population is very wealthy by global standards. Between 2016 and 2020 the percentage of households earning a net income of USD50,000 and above is forecast to increase from 37.0% to 43.0%, while the percentage earning USD10,000 and above will rise slightly, from 92.5% to 93.9%.

Between 2016 and 2020 we forecast total household spending to rise from USD198.13bn to USD245.76bn, supported by high incomes and consumer confidence.

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The 'personal, insurance and other' category will continue to account for the lion's share of total retail spending, at 28.57% of the total in 2016, reflecting the developed and consumer-oriented nature of the economy. By 2020 spending in this category will account for almost 30% of total retail spending, reaching USD73.60bn.

In terms of essential spending, housing and utilities account for a significant 16.15% of total retail spending in 2016, falling to 15.26% by 2020. Food and non-alcoholic drink also accounts for a large, and rising, share of spending, increasing from 11.69% in 2016 to 11.99% by 2020.

Although the population will grow slowly but steadily over the forecast period, the younger demographic is set to decline in number, as the population ages. This will reduce opportunities for retailers in the longer term.

The Hong Kong Retail Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.

BMI's Hong Kong Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.

Key Benefits
Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Hong Kong to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Hong Kong retail market.
Target business opportunities and risks in Hong Kong through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

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