Colombia Power Report Q3 2016 - New Report Available

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Mon May 23 2016

Venezuela's suspension of natural gas exports to Colombia will increase pressure on the Colombian power system in 2016 as the country ramps up thermal generation to weather th e drought brought on by El Nino . Weighing further on the stability of Colombia's electricity system, the country's power fleet has suffered a number of technical accidents. I n late February, one of the turbines of the 610MW Termoflores plant was damaged. While the government announced it is taking measures to avoid power rationing, we believe the risk of blackouts is at the highest level in more than two decades.Latest Updates And Structural TrendsThe impacts of the drought created by the El Nino weather phenomenon will be the main driver of developments in the Colombian power market in 2016. We expect a sharp fall in hydropower generation in 2015-2016, which has forced additional diesel and natural gas-fired power plants to be dispatched. The availability of excess thermal capacity to be used during periods of poor hydrology and plans to import natural gas should both allow Colombia to avoid experiencing power cuts, albeit narrowly.The government is reportedly considering introducing an extraordinary hike on electricity tariffs paid by all consumers in the country. This would allow it to compensate the thermal generation plants that make their capacity available during the drought. Some of these have struggled to operate in the current crisis, as the price they are paid is lower than the costs they incur when running on diesel - more expensive than the lacking natural gas.The government finally sold its majority stake in Isagen in January to Canada's Brookfield Asset Management for COP6.49trn (Brookfield valued the sale at USD2.2bn) after years of delays. However, the sale attracted widespread criticism and in February 2016 Colombia's attorney general's office opened a preliminary investigation into Finance Minister Mauricio Cardenas for supposed irregularities over the privatisation of the company.In November 2015 the government published a decree introducing tax incentives for new renewables projects. The decree is due to become effective in February 2016. Projects using renewable energy sources will benefit from four tax breaks, a 50% tax deduction on investment over five years, accelerated depreciation of assets, exemption of VAT on goods associated to the projects and exemption from import tariffs.

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The Colombia Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

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