"Wheat Industry in China, 2016-2020" Published

Wheat is not only one of the major grain varieties around the world, but also an important crop in China. China is the largest wheat producer as well as the largest consumer in the world. In 2015, output volume of wheat in China reached 130.19 million tons, increasing by 3.2% year on year. Wheat is widely applied in many fields. It can be milled into flour as food or used for food processing and wine brewing. It can also be used as pharmaceutical raw materials and forages.

Most Wheat is milled into flour in China at present. The total flour consumption keeps increasing steadily, and the wheat flour consumption remains stable. As Chinese economy develops and people's life improves, consumption of meat per capita and demand for dairy products and egg & poultry keep increasing, which reduces the demand for wheat flour as grain ration. At present factors pushing forward the consumption of wheat are mainly from the growth in industrial use.

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Wheat is substitutable with corns when used as forages. For example, the price ratio of wheat and corns was 0.89 in 2011, decreasing by about 12% over 2010 and becoming the lowest ratio since 1999; the consumption of wheat forages was significantly promoted in 2011, reaching over 10 million tons. The price ratio keeps increasing since 2012 and has maintained above 1.

From January to May of 2015, due to the good weather in global major planting regions such as the US, Russia and Australia, international wheat prices constantly slipped. In August wheat prices dropped faster as a result of the precipitous decline in global financial market. In October wheat prices rebounded owing to the dry weather in planting regions of Europe and Russia. After that, prices were back in slight decline. In December, Chicago wheat spot price stood at 176 USD/ton, down by 21% year on year while American hard wheat spot price was 194 USD/ton, decreasing by 19% year on year. With the rise of price ratio of wheat and corn, consumption of wheat as forage will witness an obvious decline.

As Chinese population continues to grow and consumption improves further, overall demand for grain will constantly increase. However, with the improved urbanization level and low profits of grain planting, the labor force that engage in agricultural activities keeps decreasing and the output volume of grains can hardly increase significantly. To encourage the development of grain planting industry, Chinese government has issued a series of polices, including "procurement at protective prices" which means the government implement minimum purchasing price in major wheat planting regions and rice planting regions. According to Chinese government, the minimum purchase price of wheat (Grade 3) in 2016 is the same as that in 2015, at 2,360 CNY/ton.

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