Report Published: "Kenya Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q3 2016"

Many emerging market economies are increasingly exposed to the negative effect of sustained lower commodity prices. This is putting downward pressure on government finances and, as a consequence, healthcare budgets. We nevertheless maintain a positive long-term outlook for medicine demand in emerging markets such a s Kenya , as access widens through the expansion of reimbursement lists and greater investment in hospitals and clinics.Headline Expenditure ProjectionsPharmaceuticals: KES73.34bn (USD746mn) in 2015 to KES83.97bn (USD806mn) in 2016; 14.5% growth in local currency terms and 8.0% in US dollar terms.
Healthcare: KES341.15bn (USD3.47bn) in 2015 to KES377.09 (USD3.62bn) in 2016; 10.5% growth in local currency terms and 4.3% in US dollar terms.Risk/Reward IndexIn BMI's Q216 Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Risk/Reward Index, Kenya is 20th in the Middle East and Africa region scoring 38.1 out of 100, below the regional average score of 36.9 . A large counterfeit drug industry, poor healthcare funding, corruption, regulatory deficiencies and a number of other issues will conspire to keep Kenya in a low position in the MEA matrix. Nevertheless, in comparison with many other African markets, most of which are not surveyed by BMI, Kenya offers greater commercial promise and a more stable overall business environment.Latest UpdatesIn January 2016, it was reported that a new report by the Kenya Medical Practitioners Pharmacists and Dentists Union (KMPDU), which carried out an audit of the number of doctors in public facilities, indicated the number of doctors has dropped to 3,956 serving more than 40mn Kenyans, many of whom cannot afford the cost of services in private health facilities.In January 2016, the Pharmacy and Poisons Board stated that it will soon release a code where Kenyans can send text messages and receive prompt and specific responses about drugs, including registration status and safety.In March 2016, it was reported that telecare is having a dramatic impact on the way health care is delivered to both urban and rural communities in Kenya. In January 2016, it was reported that the National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF) has introduced a new package that will cover patients with chronic diseases, specifically catering towards diabetes, hypertension and cancer.BMI Economic ViewThe Kenyan economy will expand robustly in the coming decade, driven by infrastructure investment and a strengthening services sector. A growing and increasingly well-connected population will ensure Kenya remains among Sub-Saharan Africa's most dynamic and innovative economies.BMI Political ViewThe case of Kenya's 'missing eurobond' is proving particularly damaging for the government amid growing signs that the patience of investors and ordinary Kenyans is running thin.

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