Venezuela is once again experiencing significant power outages, with record low water levels threatening the operation of major hydroelectric plants in a country where ag e ing transmission infrastructure is already resulting in high levels of output losses. Significant private investment in new power infrastructure is unlikely, at least in the short - to medium term, as political uncertainty and a history of state appropriation of assets will continue to deter potential investors. At the same time public spending on infrastructure improvements is undermined by macroeconomic uncertainty and falling revenues from oil reserves. There are a slim number of projects currently progressing through the pipeline which will add to total electricity generated over the forecast period . H owever we caution that projects have historically been subject to delays which may lead to a downwards revision of current figures.
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Political uncertainty remains a fundamental deterrent to potential private sector investors in the Venezuelan power sector. The current president, Nicolas Maduro, is considered unlikely to be able to see out his full term in office as political opposition is high and social unrest caused by goods shortages, soaring inflation and elevated violence is rising.
Power outages have been frequent since the start of 2016 and in March the government announced it was extending national holidays and reducing the working hours of government employees in an attempt to reduce consumption and lower the burden on the power network.
Falling water levels in dams feeding major hydroelectric plants, including the vital Guri reservoir, as well as the shutdown of facilities for maintenance mean we revised our short-term forecasts for total electricity generation in Venezuela in 2016 and now expect to see a contraction of 0.66% in output to 117.32TWh, exacerbating existing power shortages.
More positive growth is expected over the remainder of the forecast period as new hydropower capacity comes online and some renewable projects progress, including wind power which offers significant growth potential. By 2025 total generation is currently forecast to reach 154.30TWh.
The Venezuela Power Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Venezuela Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
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"Venezuela Power Report Q3 2016" Published
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