Nigeria Country Risk Report Q3 2016 - New Study Released

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Mon Jun 13 2016

Real GDP growth in Nigeria will be weak in 2016 - we forecast a 3.1% expansion - as the naira peg and capital controls will continue to weigh on economic activity through the course of the year, exacerbating the global oil price slump's effects on the Nigerian economy. While 3.1% growth would mark an acceleration on 2015's 2.8%, it is nevertheless a downward revision from our previous forecast of 3.6%. This revision is due to delays to the planned expansionary budget and a recent data release, which has shown the extent to which businesses are being hampered by capital controls.

The Nigerian government's move to secure USD6bn in loans from China signals two things: strengthening relations with the Asian giant and a reluctance to comply with the stipulations on economic policy which would likely have accompanied an IMF loan. Relatedly, Nigeria will be able to further delay any devaluation to the naira, which has been controversially pegged at NGN197-199/USD since February 2014.

Full Report Details at

Nigeria's current account deficit will narrow slightly in 2016 thanks to declining imports rather than any macroeconomic improvement or boost in exports. It will remain wide in 2017, but the launch of a new domestic oil refinery in 2018 will help narrow in the deficit thereon in.

A surprise reversal in monetary policy by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will spook rather than reassure investors. While central bank governor Godwin Emefiele has laid the blame for a slowdown in economic growth at the door of everyone but the bank, we do not expect any significant turnaround until there is some relaxation of the exchange rate peg and capital controls.

Key Risks

While we believe that security risks will eventually be contained, if the situation significantly deteriorates, this would potentially affect investment, exports, and growth.

Power sector reforms are crucial for long-term productivity gains. If these are slowed or stalled, this would lead to lower long-term trend growth than we currently expect.

Assess your risk exposure in Nigeria with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Nigeria with confidence.

Your subscription service includes:
Delivery of the report in print and PDF
Online access for 12 months
The functionality to translate your online report into your choice of 10 languages - Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Spanish
The ability to export data and graphs from the online report directly into your workflow
The support of a dedicated Account Manager to answer any questions you might have about your subscription

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is a leading distributor of market research and business information. Representing the world's top research publishers and analysts, we provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. Our unbiased, expert staff is always available to help you find the right research to fit your requirements and your budget.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at or call us at 1.800.844.8156 (1.413.485.7001 Int'l)

You may also be interested in these related reports:

- Namibia Country Risk Report Q3 2016
- Indonesia Country Risk Report Q3 2016
- Hungary Country Risk Report Q3 2016
- Latvia Country Risk Report Q3 2016
- United States Country Risk Report Q3 2016

Company: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Contact Name: Bill Thompson
Contact Email:
Contact Phone: 1-413-485-7001

Visit website »