Report Published: "Poland Retail Report Q3 2016"

Polish GDP contracted by 0.1% y-o-y in Q116, its first contraction since 2012. Despite this, we remain sanguine towards the Polish economy and forecast real GDP growth of 3.7%in 2016 and 3.5% in 2017. This will support rising household incomes, which in turn will benefit the country's retail sector. Maintenance of loose monetary policy in 2016 will support consumer spending, but rising inflation in 2017 on the back of rising commodity prices and base effects wearing off is likely to temper the rate of growth household spending.

Key Views And Developments

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/1182883_poland_retail_report_q3_2016.aspx?afid=301

We expect total household spending to amount to USD263bn in 2016, down by 2.5%, mostly due to the appreciated US dollar. In zloty terms, we expect a rise of 4.4% over the year.

Housing and utilities will account for 24.3% of total spending in 2016, reflecting the dominance of essential spending within the Polish household spending budget.

The percentage of households in the crucial USD10,000+ net income bracket is expected to reach 62.7% in 2016, representing 8.6mn households.

A slow, but sustained increase in consumer price inflation, on the back of rising commodity prices (notably oil) and low base effects will act as a minor brake on consumer expanditure over the coming two years. This will have a marginal impact on retailers.

The Poland Retail Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.

BMI's Poland Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.

Key Benefits
Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Polish retail market.
Target business opportunities and risks in Poland through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:

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