New Market Research Report: Greece Agribusiness Report Q3 2016

Cheese production will see buoyant growth in the coming years due to strong export opportunities, while sugar will remain on a declining trend as competition is set to increase in the EU market. Poultry consumption will outperform the livestock sector due to its lower cost, which will provide a modest push to corn production towards the end of our forecast period to 2020 . As the Greek economy find s some relative stability, our forecasts remain unchanged from our last quarterly update.

Key Forecasts

Poultry consumption from 2016 to 2020: up 17.6% to 208,200 tonnes. The cheaper price of poultry meat will see it continue to gain ground against beef and pork. In 2017 we expect poultry consumption to exceed production for the first time.

Cheese production to 2020: up 18.5% to 253,600 tonnes. Solid export opportunities will lead the way in keeping the dairy segment supported.

2016 real GDP growth: 0.2% (from an estimated contraction of 0.2% in 2015, expected to grow by 1.2% on average over 2016-2020).

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2016 consumer price inflation: 0.6% (up from an estimated deflation of 1.1% in 2015).

BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD13.3bn in 2016, up by 1.6% on 2015 level of USD13.1bn.

Industry Developments

Wheat production will grow solidly in 2015/16 as it recovers from the sizeable declines recorded in 2014/15, but yields will be constrained over our forecast period amid adverse developments regarding the use of genetically modified seeds in the EU.

Greek milk production will continue to be subdued following the removal of the EU production quota and the ensuing supply glut on the regional market. Similarly, consumption will see limited growth as soft drinks gain in popularity. However, cheese will outperform the Greek dairy complex, in production, consumption and exports. The EU dairy industry will undergo significant consolidation in the next five years, as the most efficient producers will benefit from a less regulated environment while smaller farmers will see their funding decrease. Over this period, the EU will benefit from strong export opportunities, mainly for cheese and milk powder. However, Greece is not one of the countries we expect to emerge as a regional dairy leader following the consolidation phase.

Poultry will outperform the livestock complex, both in production and consumption, as demand for the more affordable meat rises at the expense of pork and beef. Imports of poultry will increase to 2020 as consumption outpaces domestic production, leading to growing deficits.

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