New Market Research Report: Italy Agribusiness Report Q3 2016

We hold a mixed outlook for the Italian agribusiness industry . We still believe that cheese, milk, poultry and pork will record stable growth over the course of our current forecast period to 2020. The removal of EU milk quota s in 2015 and the opportunity for Italy to develop its value-added exports will be positive. We do not expect much from grain production this year due to w eather volatility; wheat output will remain broadly flat due to little opportunity for growth in planted area or yields.

Key Forecasts

Poultry production will record growth of 1.3% in 2015/16 to reach 1.3mn tonnes.

Pork production will reach an estimated 1.7mn tonnes in 2015/16, representing an increase of 1.2% on 2014/15.

Liquid milk consumption will reach 2.3mn tonnes in 2016, growing 4.0% from the previous year.

Latest Updates & Structural Trends

The outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza in August 2014 led to a ban on live poultry and egg imports into Russia from Italy in January 2015. Russia was a major buyer of Italian poultry, but we believe that this should not affect production significantly as the ban, which includes poultry upkeep and slaughter equipment, will be lifted upon clearance of the virus. At the time of writing, the virus has been relatively confined.

Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/1182800_italy_agribusiness_report_q3.aspx?afid=301

The 2015 heat wave in Europe, which threatened to reduce EU-28 corn crop yields by up to 19%, could have a devastating effect on Italy's corn production harvest for the year. We are cautious about this current development as neighbouring France is already bracing itself for a severely reduced corn harvest this year.

The trade relations ban with Russia is consistently challenging European Union exports and we will continue to monitor the situation as it unfolds. A prolonged Russian ban will ensure reduced exports for premium goods from Italy such as ham and cheese, thus pressuring vendors in Italy and the European Union at large.

In April 2016, it was announced that the Russian Agricultural Ministry had offered 29 projects about to start in nine Russian regions to Italian producers. Russia wants to begin various cheese, poultry and livestock feed projects locally in the country and is allowing Italian investors to localise production. Given the EU-Russia trade embargo, the investment provides Italy an opportunity to export investment and expertise rather than banned goods. The efforts will allow Italian agricultural producers, who have lost significant amounts of revenue due to trade sanctions, to begin agricultural business with Russia once again.

The Italy Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

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