Economic growth in Albania will accelerate over the next two years, but continue to remain well below pre-crises levels. Real GDP growth will be driven mainly by fixed investment, as the country's business climate improves and easing credit conditions begin to pass through to the real economy
Albania's current account will remain firmly in deficit over our forecast period to 2020, primarily as a result of a large trade deficit. While the shortfall will be covered by reserves and IMF assistance in 2016 and 2017, balance of payments funding strains may start to occur as these resources are exhausted.
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Albania's annual rate of inflation will not reach the central bank's 3.0% target until 2017, and the policy rate will not increase until the following year. Gradually rising inflation will reflect a pickup in global oil and food prices from H216, rather than recovering aggregate demand.
The government will struggle to reduce unemployment considerably before the parliamentary elections in 2017. While it will make progress improving the country's investment climate, reforms will not go far enough in a number of key areas, constraining growth.
The migrant crisis facing Europe could weigh on Albania in the coming months, as migrants (mainly from Syria) are likely to pass through the country on their way to Western Europe. The 'Albanian' route could become the main alternative after countries such as Hungary, Croatia and Slovenia have built border fences to stop the entry of migrants. This has become particularly pertinent, given Macedonia's recent tightening of its borders.
Assess your risk exposure in Albania with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Albania with confidence.
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