Market Report, "Bulgaria Country Risk Report Q3 2016", published

Bulgaria's GDP growth in the coming years will recover but stay modest by emerging market standards. We forecast the economy to grow by 2.8% in 2016 and 2.5% in 2017.

Private consumption will continue to be the main economic growth driver, as Bulgaria remains unable to attract foreign investment, which has bolstered GDP-growth in the past.

We are forecasting Bulgaria's budget deficit to remain under 3.0% of GDP in the years ahead and although the overall debt level will rise, it will stay at a low level compared to regional peers.

Bulgaria will generate a trade surplus in the coming years due to higher eurozone demand and a growing influx of international tourists.

In 2016 Bulgaria's price levels will start growing again, after experiencing the deepest deflationary period (after Greece and Cyprus) in the European Union.

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Major Forecast Changes :

We have revised down our GDP growth forecast, as weaker EU funds absorption in the next two year's will contribute less to economic growth. We now forecast the Bulgaria's economy to grow by 2.5% in 2016 and 2.8% in 2017.

Key Risks:

Enduring banking sector fragility due to a high proportion of non-performing loans (NPLs) poses the biggest threat to Bulgaria's financial stability, following the bailout of the country's fourth largest bank, Corporate Commercial Bank (KTB), in 2014.

Short-term political uncertainty will remain an issue in Bulgaria, as the current government is a fragile coalition between four parties, themselves mostly consisting of political alliances.

The closure of the Western Balkans Route may lead to increased migration pressures at the Turkish and Greek border.

Assess your risk exposure in Bulgaria with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Bulgaria with confidence.

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