Report Published: "Colombia Agribusiness Report Q3 2016"

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Thu Jun 16 2016

Colombia's agribusiness sector is being held back by a number of deep structural challenges - including the lingering consequences of internal armed conflict, structural inefficiencies , low competiti veness and poor policy choices. As a result, area cultivated and yields have stagnated over the past decade. But after several decades of disappointing growth in Colombia's agribusiness sector, the outlook for production and exports is brightening. The efforts made to resolve the conflict, coupled with the potential for upcoming agricultural reforms , have pave d the way for the revival of Colombia's agribusiness. The coffee, fruits, sugar, palm oil and horticulture sectors offer the best opportunities. Colombian agriculture enjoys a large diversity thanks to abundant natural resources and diverse climates and topography. A lthough FTAs may undermine the livestock and dairy sectors, they also provide Colombia with large export markets. The US and EU, which are the main markets for Colombian agricultural products, will see their imports grow in the coming years with the decrease in tariffs.

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Key Forecasts

Corn consumption growth to 2020: 18.0% to 7.1mn tonnes. Corn consumption will expand at a faster pace than production over the medium term, boosted by the growth in the livestock sector, especially in the poultry segment. The domestic corn deficit will reach 4.75mn tonnes by 2018/19, compared with 3.95mn tonnes in 2013/14.

Poultry production growth to 2019/20: 26.4% to 1.8mn tonnes. Poultry will record the strongest growth within the livestock sector over the coming five years, supported by a growing domestic demand for meat products at affordable prices.

Coffee production growth to 2019/20: 11.1% to 14.8mn bags. Programmes to replace ageing plantations and improve resistance to disease are starting to bear fruit and will support yields and lead to apick up in planted area in the coming years. The various FTAs signed over recent years with the US, Canada and the EU will provide Colombia with large export markets.

BMI universe agribusiness market value : USD23.72bn in 2016; up from USD23.46bn in 2015; growth to average 5.0% annually between 2016 and 2020.

2016 real GDP growth : 2.4%; down from 3.1% in 2015. Forecast to average 3.1% from 2016 to 2020.

2016 consumer price index : 6.9%; up from 5.0% in 2015. Forecast to average 4.3% from 2016 to 2020.

Industry Developments

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