Market Report, "Spain Country Risk Report Q3 2016", published

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Thu Jun 16 2016

Spanish economic growth has peaked and will slow again in 2016. This will reflect the combined impact of political uncertainty, softer external trade volumes and more sluggish improvements to the county's labour market.

Unless some form of eurozone-wide debt haircuts are eventually agreed, Spain's fiscal position will pose systemic risks to the economy once monetary policy normalises from 2018

Although Spain's current account surplus will gradually shrink, its external imbalances will pose much less of a threat to wider financial stability than in years gone by.

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Opinion polls in Spain have barely moved since the inconclusive December 2015 election, implying a second election will leave Spain with a similarly fragmented parliament.

A 'grand coalition' between the centre-right People's Party (PP), centre-left Socialists (PSOE) and centrist Citizens (C's) party is the most likely outcome, but a strong showing from the far left Podemos could tip the balance of favour of a leftist coalition.

Key Risks

We cannot rule out the formation of a leftist coalition, led by the Socialists and alongside the far-left Podemos party. A leftist coalition would be poorly received by investors and would be net negative for financial stability in Spain, given the party's plan to significantly increase government spending.

Assess your risk exposure in Spain with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Spain with confidence.

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