"Mexico Agribusiness Report Q3 2016" Published

We have made some mino r forecast adjustments in our Q3 2016 Mexican agribusiness report update. We retain our positive outlook for various segments of the industry till th en end of our forecast period in 2020. Growth rates will begin to weaken compared to previous years but we foresee positive trends in domestic production and consumption of the dairy sector, livestock sector and coffee segment. We hold a subdued forecast for the grains market due to corn production volatility this year as the crop is expected to decline by over 5% in terms of yield . Rising per capita disposable incomes will continue to deliver demand-side growth, but we hold our opinion that competitiveness remains an issue for the Mexican agricultural sector as a whole, particularly in the grains, livestock and sugar subsectors.

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Key Forecasts

We estimate that Mexican corn production will decline by7.8% in 2015/16 to reach 24.0mn tonnes. Nevertheless, we estimate that the crop yields will recover over the course of our forecast period. Corn consumption, already high in Mexico, will continue to witness modest growth rates of under 1% to 2020.

We forecast strong production growth in all three livestock sectors in Mexico, with pork production outpacing poultry and beef and veal. Consumption growth will be stable in poultry and pork whereas higher cost will dampen beef and veal growth prospects in 2016.

The Mexican dairy sector will expand in terms of production in 2016 with domestic cheese demand and supply outpacing growth in liquid milk and butter sectors.

Rising per capital incomes and discretionary spending powers will boost food consumption in 2016 and beyond, over the course of our forecast period.

Industry Developments

The European Union is conducting a bilateral trade agreement with Mexico relating to organic produce. It is suggested that the European Union is looking to acquire more organic produce from the Latin American country to feed a growing demand. Mexico has a large area of over 25,500 hectares dedicated to organic produce with organic production totalling over 104,400 tonnes. The European Union accounts for over 40% of the global organic produce consumption market, trailing the United States (at 43%) and Mexico is looking to benefit from these negotiations to expand the reach of its dynamic agricultural sector.

The Mexico Agribusiness Report features BMI Research's market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Mexico Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

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