Slovakia Oil & Gas Report Q3 2016: New research report available at Fast Market Research

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Mon Jun 20 2016

Slovakia has above-average energy import dependency compared with the regional average. The country remains reliant on Russia, but is actively pushing through several projects aimed at improving bi-directional flows and establishing regional links for a regional gas market in Central and South East Europe.

Key Trends And Developments

Slovakia is almost entirely dependent on Russian oil and gas imports for its domestic consumption, with a total hydrocarbon import bill estimated at USD1.9bn in 2015, a strong decline on 2014 thanks to the fall in oil and gas prices. There is little prospect for an increase in oil or gas production.

While we expect the 130,000b/d Bratislava refinery will continue to run at high utilisation rates, downside risk to refined fuels production exists, given the difficult context for European refiners as a whole. However, the refinery's focus on diesel production could partially shield it from the negative effect of increased gasoline production in the US. The country will remain a small net refined fuels exporter throughout our forecast period.

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Gas consumption in Slovakia will stagnate, with a residential gas market close to saturation and no expansion planned in the already limited gas-fired power generation capacity.

Slovakia's refined fuels consumption will increase at a stable 1.5-2% y-o-y in the medium term, broadly in line with underlying GDP growth forecast and pulled up by the increasing vehicle fleet in the country. We have slightly revised down our oil consumption forecast on the basis of lower forecast vehicle fleet growth. Economic activity and GDP growth however is set to remain strong over the forecast period according to our Country Risk Team, providing some support to refined fuels consumption despite a slowing vehicle fleet size growth.

Ukraine signed a gas supply purchase agreement with Slovakia in early 2014. The deal allows Kiev to buy natural gas on the European spot market and annually import at least 10bcm of gas through Slovakia. An old and unused pipeline from Ukraine to Slovakia has begun reverse flows between the two countries. The pipeline has a capacity of 14.5bcm.

The Slovakia-Hungary reverse flow pipeline project began commercial operations.

Slovakia is also preparing an interconnector with Poland . Eustream and Gaz-System are currently designing the route, with a possible interconnection between the Polish village of Strachocina and the Slovak town of Velke Kapusany. It would be part of the 'North-South' gas corridor plan, and would give Slovakia access to gas from the Swinoujscie LNG terminal in Poland. With a planned start-up date of 2019, the interconnection would have a capacity of 4.7bcm in the Poland-Slovakia direction and a 5.7bcm annual capacity in the Slovakia-Poland direction.

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