Market Report, "Thailand Infrastructure Report Q3 2016", published

Relative near-term political stability benefits Thailand's construction industry, which is set to continue expanding at a healthy 5.5% rate in 2016. Growth in the industry will remain driven by ambitious government development plans in the transport and energy infrastructure sectors. However, fragile political environment and labour force shortages continue to weigh on our longer-term outlook for Thailand's construction industry.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

After strong performance in 2015, Thailand's construction sector is set to expand 5.5% (y-o-y) in 2016. However, we industry growth over to slow over the medium to long-term and average just 3.1% per annum between 2017 and 2025.

According to Thailand's National Economic and Social Development Board, the country's construction sector maintained robust growth in Q116. The sector expanded 11.2% (q-o-q), with public construction sector increasing by 14.9%, while the private construction rose 7.0% (q-o-q) in value terms.

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The State Railway of Thailand (SRT) approved high-speed trains from the Thai city of Bangkok to Hua Hin in the province of Prachuap Khiri Khan and to Rayong. The projects will be presented to the public-private partnership policy (PPP) committee and the cabinet in June. Bidding is reportedly expected to be completed in 2016, with construction slated to start in 2017.

In May 2016, Thailand's Energy Policy Administration Committee (EPAC) approved a plan by state-owned PTT Public Company to build a 5.0mn tonne per annum (tpa) LNG import terminal at Rayong.

In late March 2016, the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand has awarded a contract to Andritz Hydro to equip the 720MW Srinagarind hydropower plant in Kanchanaburi province.

Risk/Reward Index

This quarter the country's overall RRI score decreased from 55.6 to 53.7 out of 100, placing Thailand 15 th out of 23 markets ranked in our index. The decline was largely prompted by slower forecast construction industry growth rates, as compared to robust expansion recorded in 2015.

Gradual progress in economic and institutional reforms raised Thailand's otherwise unimpressive Country Risks score to 58.9 in Q316, up from of 57.1 during the last quarter.

Lack of sufficient skilled labour is an ongoing problem that will likely be exacerbated during the next few years, as Myanmar's economy gains momentum. This will likely lower Thailand's Country Rewards score in the coming quarters.

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