Argentina Country Risk Report Q3 2016: New research report available at Fast Market Research

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Tue Jul 05 2016

A substantial uptick in investment is likely following a devaluation and liberalisation of Argentina's external accounts. Nonetheless, this will likely not begin until the latter half of 2016, leading to a contraction in real GDP as private consumption declines in response to falling real purchasing power. Thereafter, Argentina will enter a period of robust growth as foreign investment flows into the country.

The government of President Mauricio Macri will move to reduce the country's budget deficit in the coming years by reducing government subsidies on electricity. This will temper inflationary pressures as the government can move away from printing new pesos to finance its substantial deficit. Nonetheless, subsidy reduction will be gradual in order to limit the shock to consumers' disposable incomes.

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Key Risks

The largest risk to the Argentine economy stem from potential pushback from the Frente para la Victoria in Argentina's legislature. The party maintains a majority of seats in the country's senate, and could block many of Macri's proposed reforms.

Weak economic growth in key trade partners such as Brazil could weigh on Argentine export growth more than our forecasts currently anticipate. Moreover, soy revenues could disappoint on the back of unfavourable weather across the Americas region, dampening agricultural exports and hurting the current account balance. In addition, should the Argentine government revert back to anti-business policies, financial account outflows would likely put additional downward pressure on foreign reserves.

Assess your risk exposure in Argentina with our 100% independent forecasts assessing the pace and stability of this key market. Backed by trusted data from BMI Research's 52 million data point economic forecast model, this report will allow you to measure political, economic, business environment and operational risks in Argentina with confidence.

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