Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Romania Country Risk Report Q3 2016", is now available at Fast Market Research
[ClickPress, Tue Jul 05 2016] Romania will be an economic growth outperformer in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in 2016, and the second fastest growing EU economy (behind Ireland).
Growth will mainly driven by household spending, which stands to benefit from public sector wage increases, successive VAT cuts, and improving labour market conditions.
Romania's deflationary trend is supply-side in nature, and we expect the central bank to begin hiking rates in 2017.
Romania's current account and trade deficits will widen, mainly due to robust domestic demand and imports.
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Romania's anticorruption push will dent trust in politicians in 2016, but will be net positive for the country's longer-term macroeconomic and political development.
Major Forecast Changes:
While Romania is now one of few EU members still stuck in deflation, we have revised our forecasts for the policy rate to remain at 1.75% by-end 2016, from a previous 2.00% forecast.
On account of strong expected domestic demand, we have revise up our forecast for real GDP growth in 2016 to 4.1%, from 3.95 previously.
While we expect the current technocratic government to survive until the next election which will be held in late 2016, the result of the election is becoming increasingly hard to predict. This could lead to a short-term uptick in political risk, and potentially dent investment.
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