Just Published: "Brazil Mining Report Q3 2016"

Brazil's iron ore sector will drive the country's mining industry growth, supported by low operating costs and vast reserves. Meanwhile, consistently weak mineral prices will weigh on production growth in other sectors.

Latest Developments & Structural Trends

Iron ore will be Brazil's mining industry's growth bright spot due to the sector's low production costs, and a strong output growth strategy from Brazilian mining giant Vale. We expect Brazil's share of global iron ore production to increase from 11.5% in 2016 to 14.5% by 2020, with the sector's output reaching 459mnt in 2020 from 359mnt in 2016.

While Brazil's iron ore production growth will not be significantly affected by the Samarco dam burst in November 2015, the country's mining sector will come under tightening environmental regulation. Increased political will to pass the overhaul of Brazil's mining regulatory framework, which has been stalled in Congress since 2013, will include legislation targeting the regulation of mine tailings dams.

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We have downgraded our bauxite production growth forecast from 3.0% to 1.0% in 2016, due to the country's declining aluminium output and weak price environment. Beyond 2016, we expect growth to accelerate as Norsk Hydro's Paragominas mine continues to ramp up production.

Major mining and metals producers operating in Brazil will face headwinds from a deepening economic recession, structurally lower commodity prices, high debt loads and corruption scandals. Firms will target lowering spending, closing or divesting from high-cost assets and reducing employment. For instance, on February 16, Anglo American announced the details of its large-scale restructuring plan, including the eventual sale of the USD9.0bn Minas Rio iron ore mine in Brazil.

The Brazil Mining Report has been researched at source and features BMI Research's mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Brazil Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Brazil.

Key Benefits
Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Brazil to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
Target business opportunities and risks in Brazil's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Brazil.

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