Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Qatar Oil & Gas Report Q3 2016", is now available at Fast Market Research
[ClickPress, Tue Jul 19 2016] The moratorium on upstream gas projects will limit the overall level of activity in the coming quarters, while work on a small number of enhanced oil recovery and redevelopment projects continues. We expect the fall in crude production to continue, with downside risk to steeper decline rates if enhanced recovery program me s are scaled back due to capex cuts. Qatar's dominance of the liquefied natural gas export market will increasingly be challenged by other producers, but efforts to diversify the economy away from oil and gas will soften the impact.
We highlight the following trends and developments in Qatar's oil and gas sector:
BP, Royal Dutch Shell, Total, Chevron and ConocoPhillips have joined the bidding process for the retendering of the Maersk Oil operated al-Shaheen oil field. Qatar Petroleum is aiming to lift the crude output from 300,000b/d to 500,000b/d, in what is Qatar's largest oil field.
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We have adjusted Qatar's gas production forecast to account for delays to the start up of the first phase of the Barzan gas project and also for a revision of our historical data. Changing our historical data set has led us to revise up 2016's production to 170.23bn cubic metres (bcm) up from our previous forecast of 165.6bcm.
Post-2016, Qatar does not have any new LNG contracts coming into force and, with 30.1bcm of contracts rolling off in the next ten years, it will have to start negotiating new contracts to secure long-term offtake. Despite the demand weakness in South Korea and Japan, we expect Asia to remain the dominant consumer of LNG, driven by strong growth in emerging markets such as China and India. As such, it will remain a key target for Qatar.
Qatar is expected to see reduced investment in its oil and gas sector over the coming quarters as it attempts to diversify its economy. The majority of upstream investment in the next three years will focus on oil field redevelopments. We have moved the start date of the Ras Laffan (LR) refinery expansion forward to account for the recent update from Qatar Petroleum. The refinery will start processing condensates in August, followed by commercial production beginning in October, contrary to the previously forecasted start at the end of Q416.
Increased domestic processing of condensates will lead to condensate exports falling by 30.0%. Qatar's exports around 460,000 b/d of condensates in the form of its two flagship condensate grades: the Deodorized Field Condensate (DFC) and the Qatar Low Sulphur Condensate (LSC). The Laffan refinery will primarily use DFC as it is the more popular feedstock for condensate splitters, leading to a decline in DFC exports from 329,000b/d to 192,000b/d by 2017.
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