Newly released market study: Canada Power Report Q3 2016

From: Fast Market Research, Inc.
Published: Wed Jul 20 2016

Growth in the Canadian power sector will be driven by the implementation of a vast pipeline of hydropower projects, as well as political commitment to increasing the role of renewables and natural gas in the electricity mix. Weak growth in power consumption - compounded by the slump in oil prices - will limit renewables investment opportunities outside of public incentive schemes, but we see upside potential from ambitious renewables plans in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

The government of Ontario is progressing in the partial privatisation process of public utility Hydro One. In April 2016, the government sold a second tranche of shares of the utility, bringing the total sold to 30%. According to the operation's manager, the sale of 60% of the company (the government's privatisation target) should be completed before the next provincial elections in 2018. The IPO for the company had been launched in November 2015.

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Details on Ontario's climate change action plan were released in May. Ontario's government will reportedly spend CAD7bn between 2017 and 2021 in a number of initiatives intended to reduce CO 2 emissions in the province, with a focus on the transportation sector and buildings. A cap-and-trade system is part of the plan, which aims to cut emissions to 15% below 1990 levels by 2020, 37% by 2030 and 80% by 2050.

As part of its strategy to phase-out coal power generation by 2030 and boost renewables in the province, the government of Alberta is expected to release the schedule for the retirement of coal-fired power plants over the coming months. The Alberta Electric System Operator has submitted an implementation plan to the provincial government, and is planning to hold a first procurement auction before the end of 2016. We are waiting for more clarity on the government's plan - particularly in terms of the coal plants' retirement schedule - before including it in our forecast for the Canadian thermal and renewables power sector.

Investor interest in the renewables market of Alberta and Saskatchewan is growing. In June 2016, Siemens Canada's wind and renewables division said that they expect up to CAD50bn to be spent on renewables in the two provinces over the next 14 years. Moreover, it was reported in April that Canadian energy company Suncor Energy is planning to develop 240MW of solar projects in Alberta, divided between three projects expected to come online in 2018.

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You may also be interested in these related reports:

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