"Uzbekistan Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q3 2016" is now available at Fast Market Research

Uzbekistan's pharmaceutical market represents an underdeveloped and potentially lucrative market for multinational drugmakers. Firms based within the CIS States are well positioned to take advantage of this potential given the country's dependence on imports, although the poor regulatory environment, with weak intellectual property protection, will limit the attractiveness to innovative drugmakers.

Headline Expenditure Projections

Pharmaceuticals: UZS2.78trn (USD960mn) in 2015 to UZS2.97trn (USD990mn) in 2016; 6.6% in local currency terms and 3.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards compared to the previous quarter.

Healthcare: UZS9.65trn (USD3.76bn) in 2015 to UZS11.09trn (USD3.70bn) in 2016; 14.9% in local currency terms and -1.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards compared to the previous quarter.

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Risk/Reward Index

In Q316 Uzbekistan's Pharmaceuticals Risk/Reward Index (RRI) score stays at 40.9 out of the maximum 100 points. Uzbekistan's score is driven by demographic growth (population growth score of 3.0 out of 5) and the expanding pharmaceutical market (sector value growth score of 9.6 out of 12), but is dragged down by a small market size (market expenditure score of 6.0 out of 20) and low spending per capita on medicines (spending per capita score of 2.4 out of 12). According to our RRI matrix, Uzbekistan remains one of the least attractive markets to pharmaceutical companies in the CEE region.

According to the Uzbekistan Ministry of Health in February 2016, 25 medical doctors per 10,000 of population is the ideal ratio in terms of ensuring the quality and effectiveness of healthcare provision in the country. Currently there are more than 30mn people living in Uzbekistan with around 72,000 doctors employed, which translates to a very close to optimal ratio of 24 doctors per 10,000 of population.

In line with the country's healthcare provision startegy, the number of hospital beds in Uzbekistan decreased from 139,800 to 129,800 during the period between 2011 and 2015 with futher reduction predicted.

The Kuwait Fund for Arab Economic Development (KFAED) provided a loan of USD23.8mn to Uzbekistan for the development of its healthcare sector, the Uzbek finance ministry reported on March 17. The terms include a period of 26 years and an annual interest rate of 1.5%. The funds will be used to upgrade medical equipment for urology and hemodialysis departments in health institutions throughout the country.

BMI Economic View

GDP growth in Uzbekistan will continue to slow down in 2016, as the commodity-dependent economy struggles to recover from the decline in commodity prices and Russia's economic crisis. Nevertheless, with commodity prices soon to recover, the economy will be past the worst this year, and poised for stronger growth in 2017.

BMI Political View

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